Politics

西方的金融军火库

Apr 10, 2014 Harold James

普林斯顿—乌克兰革命和俄罗斯非法吞并克里米亚给欧洲造成了严重的安全危机。但是，随着西方领导人试验了一种新型金融武器，局面可能变得更加危险。

一个民主、稳定、繁荣的乌克兰将永远是对总统普京的独裁而经济僵化的俄罗斯联邦的刺激物和照妖镜。为了防止这一结果，普京试图动摇乌克兰，其办法便是吞并克里米亚并煽动东乌克兰的种族冲突。

与此同时，普京又在试图通过倍增克里米亚人的养老金、提高该地区200,000公务员的薪酬水平以及建设规模庞大的索契式基础设施（包括耗资30亿美元的刻赤海峡跨海大桥）来增加俄罗斯的吸引力。这一战略的长期可持续性颇可怀疑，因为它将给俄罗斯的公共财政带来重大制约。但这仍有助于普京提高俄罗斯影响力的目的。

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Harold James

Writing for PS since 2001
211 Commentaries

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, Making the European Monetary Union, and The War of Words.

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David Donovan Apr 24, 2014

Economic sanctions against Russia would not have a huge impact in the US, yet they could potentially have a large negative impact on Europe
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Spiro V Apr 17, 2014

Strain on Russia's public finances? With a debt to GDP ratio of 10%, US and Western European countries can only wish they had such low debt. The USA has debt to GDP of over 100%, and their situation can only get worse with a trade and financial restrictions.
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Joe Zammit-Lucia Apr 16, 2014

"In a crony capitalist system, threatening the governing elite’s wealth rapidly erodes loyalty to the regime. For the corrupt elite, there is a tipping point beyond which the opposition provides better protection for their wealth and power."

Quite right. But one has to wonder whether there is a substantive difference in this regard between Putin's crony capitalism and the crony capitalism that is leading major German, British, Italian, French and other European corporations to lobby hard against a trade war with Russia. We're all implicated at, at some level, all systems share similarities in terms of "corruption" and state capture by powerful financial interests.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 15, 2014

"The West financial arsenal" that Mr. James describes, is in fact stored in an ornate, grey building close to the White House in Washington - the Treasury Department. Immediately after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the US has been "developing a new set of financial weapons to use against America’s enemies – first Al Qaeda, then North Korea and Iran, and now Russia".
Mr. James sees, since the annexation of Crimea, "Western leaders testing a new kind of financial warfare". New, but the expansion of sanctions against Russia may not have the same effect as they had in previous cases.
The financial war against Iran waged in 2007 was part of the US efforts to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. There were formal financial sanctions on Iran, as agreed at the UN. They prohibited transactions with Iranian banks, companies and individuals said to be directly involved in the country's nuclear programme. They were limited in scope, so that even Iran's allies, China and Russia, were willing to accept. The more powerful move involved US officials travelling the world persuading banks and companies to voluntarily abandon their business with Iran. This aimed to enhance a psychological impact of dealings with Iran, as these institutions would be subjected to greater scrutiny, making it difficult for them to operate in the US, if they alienated Washington.
Yet when it comes to Russia, The US faces a problem at the UN, due to Russia's veto power. But would it be hurt by America's financial squeeze? The key to Russia's prosperity is its oil and gas sector. Russia is a petro-power. It has vast quantities of oil reserves and untapped natural gas. It also needs energy investment. So another way to strangle Russia's economy would be to hit its vulnerable oil and gas industries. It had worked with Iran and forced Tehran to go to the negotiating table with the P5+1.
Economic sanctions against Russia would not have a huge impact in the US, yet they could potentially have a large negative impact on Europe. Over half of Russia's revenues come from gas and oil to the EU, and around 25% of gas consumed in the EU are imported from Russia.
In light of the intertwined economies, sanctions could cause the Russian economy to contract, and may have serious implications for the whole of Europe, and indirectly for global financial markets. Therefore the EU and the US are keen to pursue diplomacy, and are unlikely to get to the point where they impose a full economic embargo.
The only people who could inflict pain on Putin are his cronies and the oligarchs, as their economic interests will be targeted. Russia's economy is already struggling. Last year it saw GDP growth of just 1.3%, and the economy ministry has warned of stagnation amid rising inflation. Moreover it is seeing a capital flight - some $65-70 bn are said to have already left the country in the last three months, compared to $63bn for the whole of last year. With the EU prepared to take more serious steps to respond to the crisis, Russia may just be celebrating its Pyhrric victory over Ukraine.
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Info Seek Apr 15, 2014

I hope this financial arsenal works against the Russian "energy" arsenal.
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John McDonald Apr 15, 2014

Right. And to reiterate the last point: If the West declares financial "war" on Russia, we can only expect them to respond in the best way they can - with further military adventures.
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Jean-Louis Piel Apr 15, 2014

so right: "A democratic, stable, and prosperous Ukraine would be a constant irritant – and rebuke – to President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic and economically sclerotic Russian Federation. In order to prevent such an outcome, Putin is trying to destabilize Ukraine, by seizing Crimea and fomenting ethnic conflict in the eastern part of the country."

And also : "In a crony capitalist system, threatening the governing elite’s wealth rapidly erodes loyalty to the regime. For the corrupt elite, there is a tipping point beyond which the opposition provides better protection for their wealth and power – a point that was reached in Ukraine as the Maidan protests gathered momentum."

Very brilliant article with this comparison of 1900-1914 events.

I agree with this conlusion : "military measures would soon be needed to protect the economy. Instead of being an alternative to war, the financial arms race made war more likely – as it may well be doing with Russia today."

But with this comment : it is necessary to understand that this Russia has started this war - in fact since 2,000-2004. And we, the West, with our Asian Allies ( Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) and friends ( China), we will have to fight - this war will end with our victory.

It is important to define what terms are defining our victory.

The most likely is that Russia is becoming a Chinese province - in the 20 years to come.

The worst is to end with a nuclear war which will erase these 110 millions ethnic Russians from the surface on Earth and probably some parts of the Western World. But not China, not India, not Africa, not South American countries, not East and South Asian countries. Then the World in this worst case scenario will survive quite well.

A war couldn't be only "financial" - when a gun is put on our head , we need to fight militarily.

In the beginning of WWI (1914) and of WWII (1939) USA was very very weak militarily. But in less than 18 months it becomes very strong. It will be the same for European countries. Both USA, Canada and EU will be invincible in a war against this Russia.
Russia has no ally - not even China. China will never fight against the West for the sake of Russia. The Chinese hate the Russians. They have in mind what happens with Russia between 1830 and 2000 .They play the Russians as a cat play with a mouse. The name Russia - "a dying Empire" and Putin " a mad dog". In both case they are right.
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Afonso Eans Apr 15, 2014

I wonder what Prof. james means with a democratic Ukraine. One with Svodoba and Pravyi Sektor in Power?
- Trevor Bacon Apr 21, 2014
  
  Yes Afonso, One can only wonder. Added to that the picture of a a prosperous Ukraine after the Chicago boys have done their magic. Is that prosperous Ukraine as in everything being sold at cents on the dollar while the people sink into international corporate serfdom. I have to say that I read the first lines of the the first few paragraphs I thought he was just giving examples of the riotous propaganda that is circulating at the moment. Then to my horror I realised the guy actually meant it. Really, its a shock to realise that such intelligent people believe such rot.
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Stephen Pain Apr 13, 2014

I think that Putin can afford to build the bridge - 60 Billion US dollars left with the ex-President of the Ukraine. If you look at the suspension bridge in Vladivostok that cost 1.5 or so billion. So the building of Kerch bridge is peanuts. Indeed the money taken from the Ukraine can pay for all the operations. On top of this all the resources taken from the Crimea can pay for that invasion. Also when the Russians double the cost of gas, they can cover any additional costs. I think that Putin is a very shrewd entrepreneur of the organized kind - he is also very good at projecting being a man of the people, even though he and his colleagues in the FSB and former KGB have with the oligarchs their friends, own a vast part of the Russian economy. I am sure that he will not rock the boat too much, because all those who keep him in power might not like a credit crunch. He is very vulnerable - like Stalin he is a "man of steel" - any chink in the armour will be exploited - any health concern magnified. What we see in this foray into expansionism might signal something happening to his power base. Even though popular now, the Russian people will not like to see their economy and their income decline. I certainly think it is time that diplomats and historians factored in their analyses the reality of what Russia is today. It is dangerous, because it is ultimately a political tinderbox after the fall of the Soviet Union. I wonder why he has gambled so much. To take risks like this. Something is going on in Moscow - and that is what we should find out. Indeed for now, it is in the interest of everyone that Putin is appeased - a compromise reached. A Russia without Putin would be at the moment a disaster. I myself believe the biggest mistake ever made in recent history was the West's pressure on the Soviet Union to implode - and with it went the hope for a pragmatic and structured, progressive transition in which Gorbachev could have led the country to real prosperty and peace. What followed was a debacle.
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西方的金融军火库

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