谁应该领导全球经济

普林斯顿,说道全球经济领袖,二十世纪是美国人,正如十九世纪是英国人,十六世纪是西班牙人。一些中国人和欧洲人认为他们是下一个。果真如此吗?他们真的想成为全球经济领袖吗?

全球经济领袖的最重要先决条件是规模。一个经济,其规模越大,其系统重要性就越高,其政治代表在国际决策中的分量也越重。美国式世界最大的经济体,GDP约为16.7万亿美元。欧元区以12.6万亿美元产出屈居次席,中国排名第三,GDP为9万亿美元左右。换句话说,这三个经济体都大到了足以成为全球经济领袖的程度。

但一个经济的未来前景对领导力前景也很重要——而前路充满了严峻挑战。没人认为在未来几年甚至几十年欧元区可以比美国增长得更快。2020年,中国的产出预计将超过美国,但几十年的僵化人口控制政策会破坏其长期增长,这意味着美国经济仍是三强中最有活力的。

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