Harte Wahrheiten zum globalen Wachstum

NEW YORK – Die reichen Länder der Welt sind in wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten, die hauptsächlich mit Wachstum und Beschäftigung zusammenhängen, und nun greifen ihre Probleme auf die Entwicklungsländer über. Welche Faktoren liegen den heutigen Problemen zugrunde, und wie angemessen wird die Politik darauf reagieren?

Der erste Schlüsselfaktor ist Abbau von Fremdkapital und die dadurch zurückgehende Gesamtnachfrage. Seit dem Beginn der Finanzkrise 2008 haben einige Industrieländer die Nachfrage durch hohe Verschuldung und exzessiven Konsum aufrecht erhalten und sowohl private als auch öffentliche Bilanzen reparieren müssen. Dies kostet Zeit, Wachstum und Beschäftigung.

Alle entwickelten Volkswirtschaften verfügen über einen großen Nichthandelsbereich (etwa zwei Drittel der Gesamtleistung). Dieser umfassende Sektor hängt völlig von der Inlandsnachfrage ab. Ein Teil des Defizits könnte durch den Handelsbereich ausgeglichen werden, aber dieser ist nicht groß genug, um ein vollwertiger Ersatz zu sein. Im Prinzip könnte auch die öffentliche Hand die Lücke schließen, aber deren Kapazitäten sind durch hohe und weiter steigende Schulden eingeschränkt (wie sehr dies tatsächlich der Fall ist, wird hitzig diskutiert).

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