全球增长的残酷事实

发自纽约——世界上的高收入国家正陷入主要与经济增长及就业有关的经济困境之中,同时这些危机还在逐步向发展中国家扩散。究竟是什么因素构筑了当前的经济问题,而可能出台的政策回应又能在多大程度上起作用?

第一个关键因素是去杠杆化以及由此导致的总需求短缺。自2008年爆发经济危机以来,几个持续依赖过度杠杆效应和消费来维持需求的发达国家不得不修复其私营部门及公共资产负债表——这需要时间——使得它们在经济增长和就业方面表现不佳。

任何发达国家经济中的非贸易部分都相当庞大(约占总体经济活动的的2/3)。而对于这一大块来说,没有什么可以替代国内需求。其他可贸易部分能够弥补一些,但依然不足以完全抵消流失的部分。原则上政府可以弥合这一差距,但高昂(且仍在上升的)负债限制了政府这样做的能力(尽管这种限制究竟到达了何种程度还是个极富争议的议题)。

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