Šťastné dny znovu nenadešly

Národní úřad pro ekonomický výzkum (NBER), nezisková organizace, která již dlouho zodpovídá za označování začátků a konců amerických recesí, konečně vyhlásil, že skončila recese, jež podle něj započala v březnu 2001. NBER přesněji řečeno prohlásil, že recese skončila již v listopadu 2001, tedy před téměř dvěma lety.

Neekonomové jen těžko chápou, proč NBER trvalo tak dlouho, než usoudil, že recese ve Spojených státech je u konce. Ekonomika není pokládána za exaktní vědu, ale nezachází tato opožděnost trochu příliš daleko?

A co víc, pokud již recese skončila - a navíc je pryč již tak dlouho -, proč se Američané necítí lépe? Proč je ekonomická nálada tak negativní? Odpověď se skrývá v definici recese. Jde o to, že otázky, jež pokládá NBER, nemusí být otázkami správnými nebo přinejmenším nejpodstatnějšími.

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