欧洲的下一个道德风险

慕尼黑—到目前为止,欧元危机已经过去了六个阶段。回顾一下是值得的,因为这显示了决策者是怎样蹒跚而行、试图扑灭大火又不去关注他们所选择的道路的去向的。目前,市场已经冷静下来,但这只是危机第七阶段的开端,在这个阶段中,欧洲将深陷债务泥淖。到目前为止的事情发展过程是这样的:

  • 2007年,引入欧元所导致的通胀性信用泡沫破裂。
  • 欧元区南部国家依靠印钞机代替私人国际融资,之所以能够如此,是因为欧元区国家中央银行同意银行以低标准抵押品获得再融资信用。
  • 欧洲央行通过证券市场计划(Securities Markets Program)购买公债,这样做的目的正是维持这些抵押品的价值。
  • 财政救援机制为受困国和欧洲央行输血。
  • 欧洲央行通过直接货币交易(OMT)计划框架许下无限量购买公债承诺,以鼓励更多私人资本流向南欧,因为财政救援还不足以解决问题,并且在政治上限制太多。
  • 在欧洲新的银行联盟条件下,债权人和投资者负债被限制在银行资产负债表总规模的8%,这样做是为了确保更多的私人国际贷款流向受困银行。

危机的第七阶段是道德风险加剧的阶段,起因在于债务的急剧增长。投资风险大体上被欧洲央行和欧元区成员国政府创造的援助措施集体化了,因此投资者再一次接受了低收益率,借款人也在抓住新机会。

平心而论,2011年达成的所谓的财政契约正是为了避免这一结果。这份由所有欧盟成员国(英国和捷克除外)签署的契约要求政府承担每年降低(经平滑后的)债务/GDP比率,降低幅度为实际债务/GDP比率与马斯特里赫特条约所规定的60%上限差额的二十分之一。但是,该契约所预见的例外实际上取消了这一约束。

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