Italiens Triple-Dip-Rezession

MÜNCHEN – Italien steckt in einer Triple-Dip-Rezession. Der Ball fällt nicht nur auf ein Plateau, sondern der dopst den Abhang hinunter. Seit Ausbruch der Krise (Q4 2007) ging es erst um 7% hinunter, dann 3% hinauf, dann 5% hinunter, dann wieder um 0,1% hinauf, und zuletzt, während des ersten Halbjahres 2014, wieder 0.3% hinunter. Insgesamt ist das italienische BIP seit dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise um 9% geschrumpft. Die Industrieproduktion fiel sogar um 24%. Nur wegen der immer noch erstaunlich hohen Inflation blieb das nominale BIP bislang annähernd konstant. Die Arbeitslosenquote der Gesamtbevölkerung ist auf 12% gestiegen, jene der Jugendlichen, die nicht zur Schule gehen, auf 44%.

Italien hat der Schrumpfung seiner Wirtschaft bislang durch eine Erhöhung seiner Staatsverschuldung entgegenzuwirken versucht. Da kollektive Rettungsaktionen der Staatengemeinschaft und der EZB die Zinsen niedrig hielten, konnten die Schulden des Staatssektors vom Jahreswechsel 2007/2008 bis zum Frühjahr 2014 um ein Drittel ansteigen.

Der neue italienische Ministerpräsident Renzi will nun das Wachstum ankurbeln. Aber was er damit meint, ist noch mehr Schulden zu machen. Klar, Schulden schaffen Nachfrage, doch ist diese Nachfrage künstlich - bloß ein Strohfeuer. Echtes Wachstum lässt sich nur erreichen, wenn Italiens Wirtschaft wettbewerbsfähiger wird, und dazu gibt es im Euro nur einen Weg, der wirklich funktioniert: die Senkung der Güterpreise in Relation zu den Wettbewerbern im Euroraum. Das, was man zur Zeit der Lira durch eine offene Abwertung bewerkstelligte, muss nun durch eine sogenannte reale Abwertung imitiert werden.

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