Fatah's Azzam al-Ahmad and Saleh al-Aruri of Hamas sign a reconciliation deal Khaled Desouki/Getty Images

巴勒斯坦和解是否会恢复两国方案?

拉马拉——10月12日巴勒斯坦两大主要派别法塔赫和哈马斯代表在开罗签署新的和解协议时,实际签约的法塔赫中央委员会委员艾扎姆·艾哈迈德和哈马斯政治局副局长萨利赫·阿鲁里并不是人们所关注的焦点角色。相反,所有眼睛都盯住他们身后的那个人:埃及情报总局局长哈立德·法兹。

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在情报局总部举行的签约仪式完全由埃及人主导,他们将巴勒斯坦和解看作实现更宏伟目标的一块垫脚石。就像协议在前言部分所表述的那样,协议的签署来源于埃及总统阿巴德·法塔赫·塞西对结束巴勒斯坦人分歧的“坚持”,“目标是沿1967年之前的边界实现独立建国”。

埃及领导和平进程将提高其在阿拉伯世界的地位,进一步确立其成为地区强国。哈马斯和法塔赫之间的和解协议已经在这方面取得了一些进步,同时也为塞西政府提供了急需的士气提升。

对埃及来讲,好消息是巴勒斯坦不仅愿意重新追求和解,而且愿意与以色列及其主要战略盟友美国开始艰苦的谈判进程。巴勒斯坦国家政治的这种复兴主要体现了哈马斯近期的立场转变,这种转变是这个逊尼派伊斯兰组织历经数年考验才最终取得的。

因为选错了在叙利亚和埃及的支持对象,哈马斯的麻烦从此开始了。叙利亚独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德的政权击败了哈马斯支持的大马士革伊斯兰叛乱分子,而哈马斯支持的由默罕默德·穆尔西领导的埃及穆兄会政府也在一年后垮台了。此后,沙特阿拉伯、埃及、阿联酋和巴林与卡塔尔断绝外交关系,导致哈马斯原本来自卡塔尔和伊朗的财政和政治支持都逐渐丧失了。

因为在中东地区几乎找不到盟友和赞助者,哈马斯别无选择,只能重新靠拢巴勒斯坦阵营。该团体迅速而无条件地接受了马哈茂德·阿巴斯总统的三项要求:解散哈马斯领导的行政委员会、允许拉马拉邦的巴勒斯坦政府重新在加沙发挥作用、并允许总统和议会选举在加沙地带和西岸举行。

巴勒斯坦和解必将开启和平进程,特别是因为新选举将为与以色列谈判人员提供所必须的合法性。但对埃及和巴勒斯坦人而言,真正艰巨的工作还有待完成。

为实现巴勒斯坦沿1967年前边界独立建国的目标,法塔赫和哈马斯需要与唐纳德·特朗普总统领导的美国和内塔尼亚胡总理领导的以色列通力合作。而人们对这方面的期待一直不高。

特朗普声称他将签署解决巴以冲突的“最终协议”。但特朗普和内塔尼亚胡相互助长对方的鹰派立场,仍然拒绝接受世界其他国家眼中两国方案这一任何真正协议的基本前提。而年纪渐长的阿巴斯也不太可能接受亲以色列的特朗普政府所提出的任何糟糕的协议。

即便这种徒劳状况也还属于乐观的估计,因为它假设谈判能够真正启动——而如果以色列继续在被占领土上非法建设定居点,启动谈判只能是一项不太可能实现的任务。以色列这样的行为不仅有欠公正;而且违反了联合国安理会第2334号决议,该决议去年曾获得安理会所有成员国的几乎一致通过(当时巴拉克·奥巴马总统领导下的美国投了弃权票)。该决议要求“以色列立即全面停止在包括东耶路撒冷在内的被占巴勒斯坦领土上的一切定居点兴建活动”——这样的活动实际相当于“公然违反国际法”。

以巴之间达成任何协议都需要双方做出真正的让步——而双方领导人必须说服各自国内民众接受这样的让步。负责冲突和解事务的特朗普的女婿兼顾问杰瑞德·库什纳和特朗普内阁在这个问题上的主要谈判代表杰森·格林布拉特似乎明白个中缘由。埃及无疑也了解这一前提,而且已经明确表示未经公开授权的分裂的巴勒斯坦领导层(就像新选举将要产生的政府那样)将无法展开任何真正的谈判,也无法让公众支持最终协议的签署。

问题在于以色列人是否愿意做出这样的让步,从而实现两国方案或在一国方案前提下建立真正可靠的分权制度。如果他们做不到这一点,近期的巴勒斯坦和解无论多么积极,都不会标志着以巴冲突的最终结束。这可能仅仅标志着巴勒斯坦人争取自由斗争新篇章的启动。

翻译:Xu Binbin

http://prosyn.org/IjzVPxM/zh;

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