De wisseling van de monetaire wacht

NEW YORK – Bij veel centrale banken vinden nu al leiderschapswisselingen plaats of zullen die binnenkort hun beslag krijgen. Dan vertrekken veel mensen die deels verantwoordelijk waren voor het veroorzaken van de mondiale economische crisis van 2008 – en daarna krachtdadig in actie kwamen om het ergste te voorkomen – onder gemengde gevoelens van het publiek. De voornaamste vraag is nu in hoeverre deze gevoelens het gedrag van hun opvolgers zullen beïnvloeden.

Veel spelers op de financiële markten zijn dankbaar voor de soepelheid van de toezichthouders, waardoor zij vóór de crisis enorme winsten konden oogsten, en voor de royale reddingspakketten, die hen na de crisis hebben geholpen hun kapitaalposities weer op orde te krijgen – en er vaak met enorme bonussen vandoor te gaan – hoewel zij de mondiale economie aan de rand van de afgrond hadden gebracht. Die steunpakketten hebben de aandelenkoersen inderdaad gestut, maar zouden ook heel goed tot nieuwe zeepbellen geleid kunnen hebben.

Bovendien blijft het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) in veel Europese landen duidelijk beneden het niveau van vóór de crisis. In de Verenigde Staten zijn de meeste burgers, ondanks de groei van het bbp, vandaag slechter af dan vóór de crisis, omdat de inkomenswinst sindsdien vrijwel uitsluitend naar de topverdieners is gegaan.

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