spence151_ TIMOTHY A. CLARYAFP via Getty Images_stockmarket

转型中的全球经济

May 31, 2022 Michael Spence

纽约—最近关于全球经济和市场的对话被一系列反复出现的问题所定义。在一张清晰图片中，你捕捉到多个活动部分，但尝试把一些最大问题挑出来给予更多关注是值得的。

第一个问题很简单：经济衰退是否迫在眉睫？国际货币基金组织等机构的权威增长预测已被大幅下调，并可能进一步下调，因此有充分的理由担心。但全球经济衰退（定义为连续两个季度 GDP 负增长）仍然不太可能发生，不过重大冲击（例如冲突急剧扩大或能源等关键市场突然严重中断）可能会改变这一前景。

然而，一些经济体肯定会收缩。即使石油和天然气价格上涨，俄罗斯GDP也肯定会萎缩，这是西方严厉且很可能是长期的制裁的结果。由于能源价格高企、对化石燃料进口的严重依赖以及（代价高昂的）迅速摆脱俄罗斯供应的必要性，欧洲也可能经历衰退。许多低收入国家——食品和能源价格飙升加剧了疫情对它们的影响——正面临艰难时期。

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Michael Spence

Writing for PS since 2008
155 Commentaries

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Senior Advisor to General Atlantic, and Chairman of the firm’s Global Growth Institute. He serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (Macmillan Publishers, 2012).

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Frank Tuijn Jun 6, 2022

Some scarcities can be very damaging. There is a great lack of semiconductors the production of which use Neon lasers. Producers have Neon supplies for some months at most while Ukrainian production, 50% of world production has been stopped by the war. The plant in Mariupol, some 30% of world production, was dependent for its raw materials on the oxygen plant of Azovstal which will not be rebuild. I understand that the other plant in Odessa is dependent on raw material from Russian steel plants which might be restored when Russia captures the city, expected according some US estimates in July. Other plants are in China and Russia. See https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-ukraine-halts-half-worlds-neon-output-chips-clouding-outlook-2022-03-11/.
What will this mean for the production of cars and thousands of other machines?
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Mirek Fatyga Jun 2, 2022

very reasonable.

Now, if we could only quit the catastrophe talk, replace it with the more proper scarcity talk and follow up with sound engineering, rather than ICPC junkets, we might start making more progress that is just slightly less prone to actually causing an energy crisis.
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Madurai Padmanabhan May 31, 2022

“unlike fossil fuels, renewables largely do not create external dependencies.”

IMHO, there is room for reviewing the above assumption in the Prof’s argument. Geopolitical throttling and choking that was a high note of the fossil fuel based energy regimen, is a definite possibility in the new energy domain as well.

Key materials, geographically meaningful alliances for gird sharing, affordable technology transfers and especially financing for transformation/ transition are factors that will question the ability of nations to act independently.

In fact, the above weakness in energy transition should be the guiding force for sovereigns to set aside incumbent ideological impasse to save the planet for the future generations.

Dependence should not be a bad word; if we truly believe in sharing the planet equitably.
- Omar Luquin Jun 2, 2022
  
  +1
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