Larga vida al auge chino

BEIJING – Después de tres décadas de crecimiento del PIB a un ritmo anual promedio del 9,8%, la expansión económica de China lleva trece trimestres consecutivos de desaceleración. Es la primera vez que se observa un período de desaceleración tan prolongado desde que en 1979 se lanzó la política de “reforma y apertura”. En el segundo trimestre de este año, el PIB real creció a un ritmo anual de solamente el 7,5% (igual a la meta fijada por el gobierno chino al comenzar el año). Muchos indicadores señalan que esta desaceleración económica continuará, y los inversores son cada vez más pesimistas respecto del futuro de China. ¿Puede China experimentar un colapso?

De hecho, muchas otras economías emergentes de crecimiento rápido han sufrido (incluso más que China) la caída de la demanda global derivada del continuo recorte de gastos en las economías de altos ingresos desde la crisis financiera de 2008. Por ejemplo, el crecimiento del PIB brasileño se desaceleró abruptamente, de 7,5% en 2010 a 2,7% en 2011 y apenas 0,9% en 2012, mientras que en el mismo período, la tasa de crecimiento de India se redujo de 10,5% a 3,2%.

Además, muchas nuevas economías industriales (NEI) de altos ingresos con pocos problemas estructurales tampoco se libraron de los efectos de la crisis de 2008. El crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur se redujo de 6,3% en 2010 a 3,7% en 2011 y 2% en 2012; el de Taiwán cayó de 10,7% a 1,3% en el mismo período; y el de Singapur se hundió desde 14,8% hasta 1,3%.

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