Многие лета китайскому экономическому буму

ПЕКИН – После трех десятилетий ежегодного увеличения ВВП на 9,8% экономический рост Китая замедляется, и это происходит на протяжении 13 кварталов подряд. Это первый столь продолжительный период замедления темпов роста с момента объявления политики «реформ и открытости» в 1979 году. Во втором квартале этого года реальный ВВП увеличился лишь на 7,5% годовых (что соответствует показателю, реально запланированному китайским правительством в начале года). Многое указывает на то, что замедление темпов роста будет продолжаться, а среди инвесторов усиливаются «медвежьи» настроения в отношении перспектив Китая. Ожидает ли эту страну крах?

По правде говоря, другие быстро развивающиеся молодые экономики тоже пострадали – и сильнее, чем Китай – в результате глобального падения спроса из-за постоянного сокращения расходов в богатых странах с момента финансового кризиса 2008 года. Например, прирост ВВП Бразилии резко замедлился – с 7,5% в 2010 году до 2,7% в 2011 году и лишь 0,9% в 2012 году. В Индии за тот же период прирост ВВП уменьшился с 10,5% до 3,2% в год.

Более того, кризис 2008 года не пощадил и экономику многих стран с высоким уровнем доходов, недавно прошедших индустриализацию (НПИ) и не имеющих больших структурных проблем. Так, в Южной Корее прирост ВВП снизился с 6,3% в 2010 году до 3,7% в 2011 и всего 2% в 2012; в Тайване он за тот же период упал с 10,7% до 1,3%; а в Сингапуре и вовсе рухнул с 14,8% до 1,3%.

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