Hora de madurar para la eurozona

MILÁN – Después de la crisis de 2007 a 2009, en los países avanzados se produjo en general un aumento grande y rápido de la deuda pública: por primera vez, la relación deuda/PIB de los países de la OCDE superó el 100% en promedio. Las perspectivas de crecimiento para las próximas dos generaciones se verán obstaculizadas por la consolidación fiscal, y habrá que reformular el Estado de Bienestar que conocimos en Europa después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, especialmente para hacer frente al veloz envejecimiento de la población.

Pero la crisis de deuda de la eurozona tiene rasgos particulares. El más importante es que si bien la relación deuda/PIB promedio no es mayor que la de otros países avanzados, y los esfuerzos de consolidación comenzaron antes, la eurozona lleva dos años empantanada en una grave crisis de confianza. Esto señala la existencia de una dimensión sistémica de la crisis, que no puede explicarse simplemente por la prodigalidad de aquellos países que no cumplieron las metas fiscales.

De hecho, la crisis griega reveló tres grandes falencias de la unión monetaria. La primera, la falta de mecanismos eficaces para coordinar las políticas fiscales y económicas. En tanto la vigilancia de la disciplina fiscal esté en manos de un organismo intergubernamental, el problema está destinado a repetirse, lo cual reduce la credibilidad de las reglas presupuestarias conjuntas.

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