Jak zajistit růst v eurozóně

MILÁN – Rychlé a výrazné zvyšování státního dluhu od krize v letech 2007-2009 je v rozvinutých zemích všeobecným jevem: poměr průměrného dluhu k HDP v zemích OECD poprvé překonal hranici 100%. Fiskální konsolidace bude mít dopad na růstové vyhlídky pro dvě příští generace a sociální stát, jak jsme ho v Evropě po druhé světové válce znali, bude potřeba transformovat, zejména kvůli rychlému stárnutí populace.

Dluhová krize v eurozóně však má jisté charakteristické rysy. Ze všeho nejdůležitější je, že poměr průměrného dluhu k HDP zde sice není vyšší než v jiných rozvinutých zemích a konsolidační úsilí zde začalo dříve, avšak eurozóna se už dva roky zmítá v těžké krizi důvěry. To ukazuje na systémový rozměr krize, jejíž příčiny nelze redukovat na rozmařilé chování fiskálních hříšníků.

Řecká krize odhalila tři hlavní slabiny v měnové unii samotné. Za prvé systém postrádal efektivní aranžmá, které by uvedlo v soulad fiskální a jiné hospodářské politiky. Dokud bude vymáhání fiskální disciplíny svěřeno mezivládnímu orgánu, bude se problém zákonitě objevovat znovu a znovu, což omezí důvěryhodnost společných rozpočtových pravidel.

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