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Politics

Europe in Disarray

Dec 13, 2018 Richard Haass

In what by historical standards constitutes an instant, the future of democracy, prosperity, and peace in Europe has become uncertain. And with the US under President Donald Trump treating its allies like enemies, the continent must confront the growing threats it faces largely on its own.

NEW YORK – It was not all that long ago – just a few years, as hard as that it is to believe – that Europe appeared to be the part of the world most closely resembling the end-of-history idyll depicted by Francis Fukuyama at the end of the Cold War. Democracy, prosperity, and peace all seemed firmly entrenched.

Not anymore. Parts of Paris are literally burning. The United Kingdom is consumed and divided by Brexit. Italy is led by an unwieldy left-right coalition that is resisting EU budget rules. Germany is contending with a political realignment and in the early phases of a transition to a new leader. Hungary and Poland have embraced the illiberalism seen across much of the world. Spain is confronting Catalan nationalism. And Russia is committing new acts of aggression against Ukraine.

In what by historical standards constitutes an instant, the future of democracy, prosperity, and peace in Europe has become uncertain. Much of what had been widely assumed to be settled is not. NATO’s rapid demobilization after the Cold War looks premature and precipitous.

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2000
153 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author, most recently, of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens (Penguin Press, 2023).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 23 Comments on this article

Tom Rykerson Dec 16, 2018

europe needs to start doing europe
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 15, 2018

Richard N. Haass is highly pessimistic about Europe, reciting a litany of crises and problems that engulf the EU, blaming the political class for its share of today’s growing “disarray.” He sees a number of “polices” that could help European leaders “manage” the myriad of challenges, and believes they could benefit from a US “involvement and support.” But since Trump treats European allies like “enemies”, now they must weather the storm on their own.
The author laments that not long ago, everything seemed bright in Europe: “Democracy, prosperity, and peace all seemed firmly entrenched.” The European project was being widely hailed as unstoppable. In 2007, marking the 50th nniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which gave birth to the European Economic Community (EEC) - the first step along the path to the modern European Union, the EU had cause to celebrate - "We are coming ever closer together, while remaining diverse in culture, language and traditions. Our unity is based on common values: freedom, democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, and equality."
The global financial crisis in 2008 hit Europe hard. The ensuing eurocrisis deepened the north/south divide between affluent creditors and cash-strapped debtors. Barely recovered, fears are growing that the eurocrisis may soon return, when Italy plans to boost its deficit. The coalition in Rome came to power promising to slash taxes and boost welfare spending. France will overshoot the EU budget deficit ceiling next year without deeper spending cuts after Emmanuel Macron backed down to the anti-government protests, “offering compromises more likely to fuel additional demonstrations,” and advance Marine Le Pen’s anti-establishment and xenophobic agenda.
Since the 2011 Arab uprising that led to anarchy in Libya and a civil war in Syria, Europe was confronted with an influx of refugees, which peaked in 2015, when Germany decided to open its borders. This gave rise to far-right populism, whose supporters refuse to take in migrants and refugees from Muslim countries. The east/west divide widened, when Hungary and Poland openly rejected the EU refugee quotas, fearing an erosion of their Christian culture and national identity. Sliding toward authoritarianism, Hungary and Poland make a mockery of EU rules and values, while milking the bloc for financial benefits.
No doubt the UK and the EU have been fully consumed by Brexit negotiations. Although Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the EU has hurt the idea of Europe and Europe’s standing in the world, it has also brought a surprising unity to the other 27 EU member states. Each of them may be facing different consequences and costs from Brexit. But when asked for their takeaway so far, the most common response is: EU solidarity matters. Gone are their initial regret and fear of the bloc’s post-Brexit future, pragmatism prevails. Now they work hard to ensure a smooth transition, no matter what the Brexit outcome is,
The above-mentioned situation contradicts what the author says: “there is no single cause that explains Europe’s increasing disarray, there is no single solution either. To be precise, there is no solution of any sort. There is, however, a set of policies that, if adopted, would help leaders manage the challenges.” Needless to say, European leaders are tackling the issues he points out – migration, climate change, security and defence. What he deems most important is to stop the Nord Stream II pipeline and wean Europe from Russian gas, and to rein in Russian influence.
In the era of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the European legacy of open societies based on rights, obligations and individual freedoms has been under attack. Democratic governance is not a given in much of the world, apart from the Transatlanctic endeavour to uphold the Western-led global order. Despite Trump’s hostility toward Europe, and even though the EU is in disarray, we, Europeans are still ready to defend the last bastion of liberal values. It is premature to predict doom for Europe’s “future of democracy, prosperity, and peace.”
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Morten Lynge Dec 14, 2018

"There is no single explanation for these developments."

Look closer... Instability of all kinds are bound to appear when you're in a currency union without the NEEDED mechanism of significant fiscal transfers to balance the loss of floating currency rates as equaliser.
The base cause for ALL of the instabilities is the economy, and that has been paralysed by an incomplete euro construction which benefits only the strong members, and beggars the weak (which include France).

Fix the euro, and the other problems can be handled individually... Don't fix the euro, and all the problems will continue to grow, fuelled by the economy problems the euro is causing.
- Jose Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio Dec 14, 2018
  
  This is my comment #1. As can be seen in the story “It’s not left versus right… that matter” since 1980, “but old versus new” ( https://medium.com/@gmh_upsa/its-not-left-versus-right-that-matter-since-1980-but-old-versus-new-41805b9a05cc )," there is "a single explanation for these developments." Can almost 4 decades be considered “an instant” by “historical standards”? Under NIGEL’s first comment I will respond why in the “new” it is impossible to “Fix the euro, and the other problems can be handled individually...”
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M M Dec 14, 2018

The disarray is of the political class own doing. They promise something, mean and say something else, and do something totally different. The whole system of political governance (excluding Switzerland), must be revamped and put right.
- Jose Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio Dec 15, 2018
  
  This is my comment #5. I clarify that my comments are intended for thought leaders on Project Syndicate not for the general public. I “Googled” revamped and got “revamp" -- give new and improved form, structure, or appearance to. To me “revamp“ is about “transformation” to The Wealth of Globalization, as opposed to “transition” to remain in “The Wealth of Nations.”
  
  Lets then select “transformation” of "The whole... political governance (excluding Switzerland)“ quoting you. I avoid the word system as a highly complex system, because what we have in the whole world doesn’t work as a system must work by being increasingly unsustainable for the last 4 decades according to my argument in comment 1 which I repeated in comment 4.
  
  In my comment #2. Such “Revamped” can be associated to what Fareed Zakaria said: “no one has a good answer.“ If interpret correctly NIGEL SOUTHWAY reply to my narrative "An #EU Transformation that Ends the #Brexit Game,” in “please tell me who else besides me has a good answer,” is that “revamp” belongs to insignificant details. My narrative says that it is “… an alternative for the people of what Neoliberalism has degenerated against them in all four corners of the world.” I insist that it is worthwhile to expend 4 minutes to get aware of my narrative.
  - M M Dec 15, 2018
    
    Jose AV, may I ask how old are you? Anyone who considers Google or Facebook as being THE authority for any reference, would make me start doubting their soundness or the soundness of their arguments!
    - Jose Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio Dec 15, 2018
      
      Thanks M M for helping Nigel respond in better terms. I am 73 years old. In this context about the definition of the unclear meaning to me of “Revamp,” is it sound to associate it to transformation instead of transition, based on Managing the metaphors of change by Robert J.Marshak, who to me is in fact the authority since 1996?
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Mike Robinson Dec 13, 2018

In my very-frank opinion, the European Union – initially in concept "a fairly self-constrained TRADE union among sovereign states" – too-eagerly drank of "The Globalist™ Kool-Aid" and tried to transform itself into what some of its members freely spoke of: "The United States of Europe, with its capitol in Brussels, DC." The leadership eagerly expanded its roster of member countries, but without serious consideration.

Now, the so-called Union has become "animals unequally yoked together." How, seriously, can all of these economies hope to share a common currency, a common economic policy, a common banking system? It cannot be done – the child's game is doomed to collapse into a pile of oddly-shaped wooden blocks, and so it has.

But this has not stopped EU's kingpins from pushing the two elements most dear to Globalists – the destruction of "expensive" social protection mechanisms, and the movement of "cheap" workers from other places to displace "expensive" domestics. In this, they reveal that -their- objectives have nothing whatsoever to do with the reasonable objectives of any European ... COUNTRY.

"Not 'State' ... and this is where you err ...'COUNTRY.'"
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Europe in Disarray

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