Il costo dell’uscita della Grecia dall’euro

PARIGI – All’inizio della settimana, dopo giorni di discussioni tese, il nuovo governo di Atene ha raggiunto un accordo con i paesi creditori dell’eurozona che comprende un pacchetto di riforme immediate ed un’estensione di quattro mesi del programma di assistenza finanziaria. Ma nonostante il sospiro di sollievo collettivo dell’Europa, il compromesso non esclude la necessità di nuove negoziazioni più complesse su un nuovo programma di assistenza finanziaria che dovrebbe essere introdotto entro fine giugno.

In qualsiasi negoziazione una variabile essenziale che influenza il comportamento dei protagonisti, e quindi il risultato, è il costo che un’eventuale fallimento di un accordo comporterebbe per i protagonisti stessi. In questo caso, la questione è il costo dell’uscita della Grecia (nota come “Grexit”) dall’eurozona; una prospettiva ampiamente discussa dai media durante l’ultima negoziazione con varie speculazioni sulla posizione dei diversi attori, in particolar modo sul governo greco e su quello tedesco.

Dalla prospettiva del governo greco abbandonare l’euro sarebbe una mossa altamente distruttiva che spiega le ragioni per cui non vi è grande sostegno in questo senso all’interno del paese. Ma quali sarebbero i costi di un’eventuale uscita della Grecia per il resto dell’eurozona? Sin da quando è sorta la domanda nel 2011-2012 ci sono state due visioni opposte.

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