Si la Grèce sortait de la zone euro…

PARIS – Fin février, après d'âpres discussions, le nouveau gouvernement grec et ses créanciers de la zone euro sont parvenus à un accord qui associe mesures immédiates et prolongation pour quatre mois du programme d'aide financière. Le soupir de soulagement a été général. Cependant, ce compromis ne fait pas disparaître la nécessité de négociations plus approfondies sur un nouveau programme d'aide financière qui pourrait intervenir fin juin. Ces discussions seront au moins aussi difficiles.

Dans toute négociation, le prix d'un échec est le facteur clé qui influe sur le comportement des parties. Ici, ce prix est celui d'une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro (Grexit) – une perspective largement couverte par les médias lors des récentes négociations, avec quantité de spéculations sur la position des différents protagonistes -– notamment les gouvernements grec et allemand.

Du point de vue de la Grèce, une sortie de la zone euro susciterait une vague de turbulences, c'est pourquoi et cette solution n'a ne trouve guère de partisans dans le pays. Mais quel en serait le prix pour le reste de la zone euro ? Depuis que cette question a été soulevée en 2011-2012, deux points de vue opposés s'affrontent.

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