希腊退出的成本

巴黎—本周早些时候,在经历了几天的激烈讨论后,雅典新政府与其欧元区债权人达成了一份协议,协议包括立刻采取一揽子改革和将金融援助延长四个月。但是,尽管欧洲集体大舒一口气,但这一妥协并不意味着到6月底不再需要艰难谈判以达成新的金融援助计划。

在任何谈判中,一个影响参与者行为进而决定最终结果的关键变量是不能形成一致会给双方带来多大成本。在希腊的例子中,这一成本便是希腊退出欧元区(希腊退出)的成本。在最近的讨论过程期间,媒体广泛讨论了希腊退出的情景,并且就各参与方的立场(特别是希腊和德国政府)做出了各种猜测。

从希腊角度看,离开欧元区将具有极大的破坏性,因此对这一选择国内几乎无人支持。但希腊退出对欧元区其他部分会造成怎样的成本?自2011—2012这一问题首次浮现以来,有过两种相反的观点。

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