Greenspan se hipnotiza a sí mismo

En vísperas de la última reunión del G-7 en Londres, el Presidente de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos, Alan Greenspan, cambió radical y sorprendentemente de postura al minimizar el déficit comercial de su país. “Las presiones de los mercados... parecen a punto de estabilizarse y a largo plazo posiblemente disminuyan el déficit de los EE.UU. por cuenta corriente y las obligaciones financieras que entraña”, dijo, pero, tan sólo dos meses antes, en Fráncfort, el Sr. Greenspan había advertido que el déficit de los EE.UU. no podía continuar indefinidamente sin provocar una depreciación del dólar. ¿Qué está sucediendo?

Desde luego, las magnitudes comerciales de los EE.UU. han mejorado un poco. El déficit comercial previsto para diciembre es de 57.000 millones de dólares... una mejora respecto del desfase máximo de 60.300 millones de dólares correspondiente a noviembre. Y se va a ajustar y reducir la cifra de noviembre, porque recientemente se ha descubierto un error estadístico de las autoridades canadienses.

Pero la política, y no la economía, explica por qué el Presidente de la Fed cambió de parecer sobre la débil posición exterior de los Estados Unidos. La declaración del Sr. Greenspan en Fráncfort en noviembre alarmó a los funcionarios superiores del banco Central Europeo (BCE), que la consideraron una “provocación”... tal, que no tardó en hacer caer el dólar en picado, cuando no convenía.

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