Jeunes pousses ou mauvaise herbe ?

NEW YORK – De récents travaux laissent penser que le taux de contraction de l'économie mondiale serait à la baisse. Mais l’espoir suscité par les signes de la reprise aussi appelés « pousses vertes » est étouffé par plein de mauvaise herbe. Les derniers chiffres concernant le marché de l’emploi, la vente au détail, la production industrielle et l'immobilier aux Etats-Unis restent bas. L’indication de la croissance par le PIB au premier trimestre est bien morose en Europe. L’économie japonaise est toujours plongée dans le coma et les exportations de la Chine – qui se rétablit – sont bien faibles. L’idée consensuelle que l’économie de la planète toucherait bientôt son point le plus bas se révèle – une fois de plus – par trop optimiste.

Suite à la banqueroute de Lehman Brothers en septembre 2008, le système financier mondial s’est quasiment effondré et l’économie mondiale s’est retrouvée en chute libre. En effet, le taux de ralentissement économique au quatrième trimestre 2008 et au premier trimestre 2009 a atteint un niveau proche de celui de la dépression.

C’est alors que les décideurs du monde entier ont agi avec foi et ont commencé à utiliser la plupart des armes de leur arsenal : mesures fiscales très assouplies, croissance monétaire conventionnelle et non conventionnelle, injection de monnaie par milliers de milliards de dollars, recapitalisation, garanties et assurance d’endiguer l'effondrement des crédits et des liquidités, le tout soldé par un soutien massif apporté aux économies émergeantes. L’on dénombre plus de 150 types d’interventions et de mesures de par le monde rien que pour les deux derniers mois.

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