嫩芽还是枯草?

纽约-最近的数据显示,世界经济的收缩率可能正在放缓。但是,经济复苏的“嫩芽”会破土而出的希望,已经被许多枯草的出现击碎了。美国最近的就业、零售、工业生产和房屋销售数据仍然很疲弱;欧洲第一季度GDP的增长数据也令人失望;日本的经济仍然了无生气;就连中国——经济正在复苏的中国——出口也很疲软。因此,经济学家曾一致认为全球经济很快就会见底回升的观点,再次被证实是过于乐观了。

在2008年9月份雷曼兄弟破产之后,全球金融体系几乎崩溃了,世界经济坠入了深渊。事实上,2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度的经济收缩率,几乎达到了经济萧条的水平。

当时,世界各国的政策制定者们开始变得虔诚起来,为了挽救经济几乎使出了浑身解数:大幅放宽财政政策;常规和非常规的货币扩张;在流动性支持、资本调整、保证和保险上投入数万亿的资金来阻止流动性枯竭和信贷紧缩;给予新兴市场经济体大量的支持。仅仅在过去的两个月里,全世界对经济就有150多种不同的政策干预。

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