Les leçons de la crise grecque

"C'est quand la marée se retire que l'on découvre qui nageait tout nu" [signifiant ainsi que c'est seulement au moment où se présente une difficulté que l'on sait qui a pris des risques inconsidérés] a lancé à juste titre le célèbre investisseur Warren Buffet quand la crise économique mondiale a éclaté. Comme on a pu le voir par la suite, c'est vrai tant au niveau d'un pays que d'une entreprise. Après l'Irlande, la Grèce est maintenant le deuxième pays de la zone euro à connaître de grosses difficultés de paiement en raison de la crise - à s'en trouver presque en faillite.

L'Irlande a résolu toute seule ses problèmes grâce à l'application volontariste de mesures de restructuration douloureuses. Elle a pu le faire parce que hormis le poids excessif de sa dette après l'éclatement d'une bulle des actifs, son économie était fondamentalement saine.

La situation de la Grèce est différente. La restructuration de son économie sera beaucoup plus difficile car elle devra être de bien plus grande ampleur. Son déficit budgétaire tient non seulement à des déséquilibres financiers internes, mais aussi à un système politique qui s'est cantonné pendant trop longtemps dans le déni de la réalité, laissant le pays vivre au-dessus de ses moyens.

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