Réformer la réforme grecque

PRINCETON – Le nouveau gouvernement grec, dirigé par le parti anti-austérité Syriza, présente à la zone euro un défi auquel elle n'a encore jamais fait face : traiter avec des dirigeants nationaux qui se situent en dehors du courant européen traditionnel. Syriza est à bien des égards un parti radical et ses vues sur la politique économique sont souvent décrites comme étant d'extrême gauche. Mais le point de vue de ce parti sur la dette et sur l'austérité a reçu le soutien de nombreux économistes parfaitement traditionnels en Europe et en Amérique. Quelle est donc la spécificité de Syriza ?

Toutes les négociations entre débiteurs et créanciers impliquent dans une certaine mesure du bluff et des paroles en l'air. Mais le ministre des Finances dissident de la Grèce Yanis Varoufakis a défendu sa cause hardiment devant les médias et l'opinion publique, d'une manière qui laisse peu de doute quant à sa volonté de ne faire aucune concession.

On pourrait s'attendre à ce que les négociations entre les Grecs et la « troïka » (la Commission européenne, la Banque Centrale Européenne et le Fonds Monétaire International) portent principalement sur un accord sur la situation économique. Mais ce serait un vœu pieux. Les Allemands, avec les pays créanciers plus petits, sont bien résolus contre tout assouplissement de l'austérité et sont catégoriques sur ce point que « la réforme structurelle » doit rester une condition de financement supplémentaire. Ils pensent que des conditions plus faciles serait économiquement contre-productives, notamment parce que cela donnerait l'occasion aux Grecs de revenir à leurs mauvaises habitudes.

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