Alex Tsipras concern George Panagakis/ZumaPress

Suicidio greco?

LONDRA – La buona notizia è che il default greco, che è diventato più probabile dopo il provocatorio rifiuto del primo ministro Alexis Tsipras di quella che chiama l’”assurda” offerta di salvataggio da parte dei creditori della Grecia, non costituisce più una seria minaccia per il resto d’Europa. La cattiva notizia è che Tsipras non sembra esserne consapevole.

A giudicare dalla sua belligeranza, Tsipras è fermamente convinto che l’Europa abbia bisogno della Grecia con la stessa disperazione con cui la Grecia ha bisogno dell’Europa. Questa è la vera “assurdità” nelle presenti negoziazioni, e il fraintendimento di Tsipras circa il proprio potere di contrattazione ora fa rischiare la catastrofe per il suo Paese, l’umiliazione per il suo partito Syriza, o entrambe le cose.

L’esito più probabile è che Tsipras si rimangi le proprie parole e si assoggetti alle condizioni fissate dalla “troika” (Commissione europea, Banca centrale europea e Fondo monetario internazionale) prima della fine di giugno. Se non accadrà, la Bce bloccherà il supporto al sistema bancario greco, e il governo esaurirà il denaro necessario per onorare i debiti esteri e, più drammaticamente, per pagare ai cittadini greci pensioni e salari. Tagliata fuori da tutti i finanziamenti esterni, la Grecia diventerà uno stato economico paria – l’Argentina dell’Europa – e le pressioni pubbliche estrometteranno probabilmente Syriza dal potere.

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