Alex Tsipras concern George Panagakis/ZumaPress

希腊式自杀?

伦敦—好消息是希腊违约不再对欧洲其他国家构成严重威胁。在希腊总理齐普拉斯断然拒绝了他所谓“荒谬”的希腊债权人所提供的援助方案后,希腊违约可能性大大增加。坏消息是齐普拉斯似乎并不明白这一点。

从齐普拉斯的好斗姿态看,他显然认为欧洲需要希腊的迫切性不亚于希腊需要欧洲。这才是最近的谈判中真正的“荒谬点”,而齐普拉斯错误估计他的讨价还价能力有可能给希腊带来灾难性后果,给他的左翼联盟(Syriza)党带来耻辱性失败,或者两者兼而有之。

最有可能的结果是齐普拉斯食言而肥,在6月底前屈服于“三驾马车”(欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和IMF)所提出的条件。若非如此,欧洲央行将停止支持希腊银行体系,希腊政府也将没钱维持外债,更糟糕的是,希腊政府也将没钱支付希腊公民的退休金和工资。断绝了一切外部融资后,希腊将成为经济贱民,成为欧洲的阿根廷,公众压力极有可能让左翼联盟下台。

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