Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras George Panagakis/ZumaPress

Discussions de grandes personnes autour de la Grèce

LONDRES – Bien que la Grèce et ses partenaires aient convenu d’un nouveau programme de sauvetage, le mystère reste entier quant à la manière dont s’achèvera la tragédie économique grecque. Une chose est néanmoins sûre : les gouvernements de la zone euro finiront tôt ou tard par abandonner une large part de leurs créances auprès de la Grèce. Leur refus d’admettre cette réalité ne fait qu’accroître les pertes qu’ils seront amenés à subir.

Nul observateur ne contestera que le gouvernement grec s’est à plusieurs reprises montré provoquant et déraisonnable, refusant par exemple d’accepter la nécessité d’une sérieuse réforme des retraites. Pour autant, le refus des autorités de la zone euro face à la nécessité d’un allégement de la dette se révèle tout aussi déconnecté du réel. Il y a trois semaines, la directrice du Fonds monétaire international, Christine Lagarde, a appelé au retour de discussions « entre adultes », consistant à faire face à la réalité des faits.

À cet égard, la dernière analyse de viabilité de la dette publiée par le FMI le 26 juin constitue un document de grandes personnes. Cette analyse présente clairement en quoi les dettes grecques resteront intenables à défaut de prêts concessionnels supplémentaires, et d’une extension des échéances de remboursement actuelles. Peut-être une radiation de dettes pour environ 50 milliards € sera-t-elle également nécessaire, énonce l’analyse. Seulement voilà, ces calculs reposent eux-mêmes sur des hypothèses irréalistes.

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