David Kingham/Flickr

欧洲的风暴庇护所

拉古娜海滩—欧洲经济未来阴云密布,三大不同风暴汇聚在一起:希腊危机、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,以及民粹主义政党的崛起。尽管每个风暴都是一个巨大的威胁,但借助最近的周期性东风,欧洲有望各个击破三大危机,不会引起比暂时性扰动更严重的后果。但是,如果它们汇聚成一个“完美风暴哦”,那么恢复晴空万里将十分困难,在近期未来很难见到。

目前这三起风暴处于不同的形成阶段。希腊危机已经持续了好几年,风头最劲。希腊有可能成为第一个退出欧元区的国家,也有可能遭遇国家破产——这一结果将给欧洲其他国家造成多维度威胁。欧洲必须减轻这一风暴的人道主义后果(与跨境移民有关),而其地缘政治影响也不容小觑。

第二起风暴来自欧盟东面——代价高昂的乌克兰顿巴斯(Donbas)地区军事冲突。这场东乌克兰危机已经借助明斯克II停火协议部分得到遏制,它体现了苏联解体以来西方与俄罗斯关系的最深层次的裂缝。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/KsBbpPx/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.