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欧洲的风暴庇护所

拉古娜海滩—欧洲经济未来阴云密布,三大不同风暴汇聚在一起:希腊危机、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,以及民粹主义政党的崛起。尽管每个风暴都是一个巨大的威胁,但借助最近的周期性东风,欧洲有望各个击破三大危机,不会引起比暂时性扰动更严重的后果。但是,如果它们汇聚成一个“完美风暴哦”,那么恢复晴空万里将十分困难,在近期未来很难见到。

目前这三起风暴处于不同的形成阶段。希腊危机已经持续了好几年,风头最劲。希腊有可能成为第一个退出欧元区的国家,也有可能遭遇国家破产——这一结果将给欧洲其他国家造成多维度威胁。欧洲必须减轻这一风暴的人道主义后果(与跨境移民有关),而其地缘政治影响也不容小觑。

第二起风暴来自欧盟东面——代价高昂的乌克兰顿巴斯(Donbas)地区军事冲突。这场东乌克兰危机已经借助明斯克II停火协议部分得到遏制,它体现了苏联解体以来西方与俄罗斯关系的最深层次的裂缝。

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