希腊仍然不能退出

华盛顿—1月25日,希腊将举行初期大选,民调现实,极左翼的左翼联盟党(Syriza party)可能赢得最大比例选票。因此,左翼联盟极有可能根据希腊选举法获得关键奖励——赢得选票最多的政党可以在300个席位的议会中额外获得50个席位。换句话说,左翼联盟可能赢得权力,给希腊和欧洲带来重大影响。

左翼联盟是一个联盟而不是统一的政党,这意味着其领导人齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)必须协调温和社会主义者(包括他的一些经济顾问)与激进左派成员。左翼联盟日程的实施和影响,特别是其坚决的经济计划,将取决于新政府维持国内支持和与希腊的外国债权人形成妥协的能力。

左翼联盟的经济计划拒绝接受所谓的“三驾马车”(IMF、欧洲央行和欧盟委员会)所支持——或如某些人所说为三驾马车所实施——的紧缩政策。这些政策要求希腊在未来多年时间里维持很大的初级预算盈余——超过GDP的4%。

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