Scaffolding on building.

Il Miraggio delle Riforme Strutturali

ATENE – Tutti i programmi economici imposti alla Grecia da parte dei creditori da quando è scoppiata la crisi finanziaria nel 2009, sono stati fondati su un assunto fondamentale: cioè che riforme strutturali, concepite con coraggio ed attuate senza ritardi, possono portare ad una rapida ripresa economica. La Commissione Europea, la Banca Centrale Europea e il Fondo Monetario Internazionale hanno previsto che l’austerità fiscale potrebbe avere un costo per redditi e occupazione – anche se ne hanno pesantemente sottovalutato la reale entità. Ma essi hanno affermato che le riforme a lungo ritardate (e tanto necessarie) a favore del mercato potrebbero fornire una spinta compensativa all’economia greca.

Qualsiasi seria valutazione dei risultati effettivi prodotti dalle riforme strutturali in tutto il mondo – in particolare in America Latina e nell’Europa dell’Est dal 1990 – avrebbe mitigato tali aspettative. Anche nel migliore dei casi, privatizzazione, deregolamentazione e liberalizzazione producono una crescita a lungo termine, ma con effetti di breve periodo spesso negativi.

Non è che i governi non possano progettare un rapido decollo dello sviluppo. In realtà, tali accelerazioni di crescita sono abbastanza comuni in tutto il mondo. Ma esse sono associate ad una rimozione più mirata e selettiva degli ostacoli principali, invece che ad impegni per liberalizzazioni diffuse e ampie riforme economiche.

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