Dean Rohrer

La catharsis de la Grèce ?

ATHÈNES – Le scrutin législatif du dimanche 17 juin en Grèce déterminera quel comportement, la confrontation ou la négociation, sera adopté pour modifier les dispositions de l’accord de refinancement de la Grèce par la zone euro. Au lieu d’aider la Grèce à surmonter la crise de la dette publique, les politiques d’austérité appliquées depuis mai 2010 n’ont fait que plonger le pays dans une profonde récession qui perpétue le déficit budgétaire et aggrave l’incertitude financière.

Il devient de plus en plus clair que si la Grèce décide d’agir unilatéralement – que ce soit en renonçant à l’impopulaire plan d’austérité ou au plan de sauvetage même – la zone euro suspendra le versement de l’aide prévue. Le gouvernement se trouvera dans l’impossibilité d’assumer ses obligations premières, comme le versement des salaires et des retraites, et le pays sera formellement en défaut de paiement. Les banques internationales cesseront de financer les entreprises grecques, dont les importations, provoquant des pénuries d’essence, d’aliments et de médicaments. Une sortie massive de capitaux par les déposants, liée aux doutes croissants sur le maintien de la Grèce dans la zone euro, entraînera un effondrement du système bancaire – et au final, de l’économie réelle.

La prochaine étape serait la sortie forcée de l’euro et la réintroduction de la drachme, avec pour corollaire une baisse dramatique du niveau de vie, due en partie à la dévaluation immédiate de la nouvelle monnaie et à une forte inflation. Les avantages en termes de compétitivité seront par ailleurs très limités, la Grèce n’ayant qu’une modeste base d’exportations, et seront dissous par un cercle vicieux de dévaluations et de hausse des taux d’intérêt.

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