Dean Rohrer

希腊涅槃?

雅典—周日的大选将决定希腊将在欧元区再融资协议中采取敌对还是谈判的态度。2010年5月以来的紧缩政策并没有帮助希腊克服危机,反而把它引入了深度衰退,财政赤字迟迟不降,金融不稳定性与日俱增。

越来越明确的是,如果希腊决定单方面行动——不管是抛弃不受支持的紧缩法案还是废除贷款协议——欧元区将中止贷款发放。希腊政府将无法履行基本义务(如支付工资和养老金),希腊也将正式违约。国际银行将停止向希腊企业发放贷款(包括进口贷款),造成燃料、食品和药品短缺。随着希腊留在欧元区的希望逐渐渺茫,将爆发存款挤兑,导致银行系统——最终将是实体经济——崩溃。

下一步将是被迫退出欧元区,重新使用德拉克马,这意味着生活水平的大幅下降,因为新货币将会立即贬值,通胀将会很高。与此同时,竞争力方面所获得好处将十分有限,因为希腊的出口基础薄弱,且贬值和利率上升的恶性循环将进一步削弱其竞争力。

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