希腊必须退出

纽约—希腊欧元悲剧正在上演最后一出:显然,今年或明年,希腊很有可能对其债务违约并退出欧元区。

即使6月选举后上台的新政府让退出暂时中止,老方一帖的无用政策(必须的紧缩和结构性改革)也不能重塑增长和竞争力。希腊已经陷入了无力偿债、丢失竞争力、外部赤字和萧条越滑越深的恶性循环。唯一的解脱办法就是在欧洲央行、欧盟和IMF的融资和协助下有序违约和退出,以最小化对希腊和欧元区其他国家的附带伤害。

目前,由三驾马车监视的希腊再融资计划所给予的债务纾困远小于希腊之所需。但是,即使大幅增加公债纾困额度,希腊也无法在不能迅速重塑竞争力的情况下重回增长之路。而不能重回增长之路,希腊的债务负担就不可持续。但可能重塑竞争力的选择无不要求实际货币贬值。

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