Lecciones de la Argentina para Grecia

NUEVA YORK – Hace trece años, la Argentina estaba en una situación desesperada. Su peso estaba vinculado con el dólar en un nivel que excedía con mucho su valor. Su deuda exterior era insostenible y la presión política de los Estados Unidos impedía a su débil Gobierno renegociar un programa de rescate que, como sabía incluso el Fondo Monetario Internacional, no era realista.

Actualmente, cuando Grecia afronta muchos de los mismos problemas, vale la pena examinar más detenidamente las lecciones aprendidas de la crisis de la Argentina. En aquella época, nosotros calificamos la política adoptada de “demencia económica y política... Cada una de las rondas de recortes presupuestarios ha agravado la recesión, ha aumentado la tensión social y ha reducido aún más la confianza. Ni el FMI ni ningún otro aconsejarían a un país desarrollado que adoptara semejantes políticas masoquistas y autodestructivas... Ya es hora de que esto se acabe”.

En la mayor parte, estábamos en lo cierto. Era, en efecto, hora de que se acabara. El Gobierno se desplomó rápidamente y fue substituido por otro que devaluó la divisa y suspendió el pago de las deudas del país y, sin embargo, las predicciones generalizadas de una catástrofe no se hicieron realidad. La crisis económica era bastante real, pero ya había tocado fondo. Unos meses después, se reanudó el crecimiento... y alcanzó un asombroso ocho por ciento durante los cinco años siguientes.

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