La Grecia gioca per perdere

LONDRA – Il futuro dell’Europa ora dipende da qualcosa di apparentemente impossibile: la Grecia e la Germania devono raggiungere un accordo. Ciò che fa sembrare un tale accordo impossibile non è l’opposizione di principio dei due governi – la Grecia ha richiesto una riduzione del debito, mentre la Germania ha insistito sul fatto che non un euro del debito può essere cancellato  – ma qualcosa di più importante: se da un lato la Grecia è ovviamente la parte più debole in questo conflitto, dall’altro per lei la posta in gioco è molto più alta.

La teoria del gioco suggerisce che alcuni conflitti imprevedibili sono tra una parte debole, ma determinata e combattente e una controparte forte ma molto meno convinta. In questi scenari, l’esito più stabile tende a essere un pareggio in cui entrambi sono parzialmente soddisfatti.

In un confronto greco-tedesco, è semplice, almeno in teoria, progettare un gioco di questo tipo a somma positiva. Tutto ciò che dobbiamo fare è ignorare la retorica politica e focalizzarci sui risultati economici cui auspicano i protagonisti.

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