希腊的败着

伦敦—如今,欧洲的未来取决于显然不现实的东西:希腊和德国必须达成协议。让希腊和德国不可能达成协议的不是两国政府坚守的立场——希腊要求债务削减,而德国坚持不会削减一个子儿的债务——而是更加基本的东西:希腊是这场冲突中显而易见的弱方,但它在其中的利害关系也要严重得多。

博弈论表明,最不可预测的冲突是那种坚毅的弱方与坚定程度远远不如它的强方之间的冲突。在这一情境中,最稳定的结果总是双方都部分满意的平局。

在希腊-德国冲突中,至少理论上很容易设计出这样一个正和博弈。我们所需要做的只是忽略政治说辞,专注于双方真正想要的经济结果。

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