Greece flag ship trade Elias Bizannes/Flickr

¿Por qué Grecia es distinta?

BRUSELAS – Las negociaciones aparentemente interminables entre el nuevo gobierno griego y sus acreedores internacionales – el Fondo Monetario Internacional, el Banco Central Europeo y la Comisión Europea – sobre un nuevo acuerdo de préstamo han entrado a una fase peligrosa. En este punto, un error en cualquiera de los lados amenaza con desencadenar el tipo de accidente que podría precipitar una nueva crisis en Europa.

El FMI parece dispuesto a tirar la toalla – y esto, en especial, debido a la reciente información que indica que este año Grecia podría presentar un pequeño déficit presupuestario primario (que excluye el pago de intereses), en lugar del cuantioso superávit que se planificaba. Sin embargo, debido a que la economía de Grecia se desploma nuevamente, su gobierno está convencido de que el actual programa de pagos no está funcionando – y que, en ausencia de ajustes significativos, nunca lo hará.

Un elemento fundamental en la argumentación que presenta Grecia para obtener nuevos términos del rescate es la narrativa, misma que señala que este país fue víctima de la excesiva austeridad – relato que se ve reforzado por las actuales penurias económicas que atraviesa. Sin embargo, lo que se expresa deja de lado un hecho crucial: la austeridad sí funcionó en otros países europeos afectados por la crisis. En los hechos, Portugal, Irlanda, España, e incluso Chipre están mostrando señales claras de recuperación: tasas de desempleo que finalmente disminuyen (aunque lentamente y desde niveles altos) y restablecimiento de sus accesos a los mercados de capitales.

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