Greece flag ship trade Elias Bizannes/Flickr

Perché la Grecia è diversa

BRUXELLES – I negoziati apparentemente interminabili tra il nuovo governo greco e i suoi creditori internazionali – il Fondo monetario internazionale, la Banca centrale europea e la Commissione europea – su un nuovo accordo di prestito sono entrati in una fase pericolosa. A questo punto, infatti, qualunque errore commesso da una delle due parti rischia d'innescare un tipo d’incidente in grado di scatenare una nuova crisi in Europa. 

L'Fmi sembra pronto a gettare la spugna, anche in ragione della recente rivelazione che la Grecia potrebbe riportare un piccolo disavanzo primario (al netto degli interessi) quest'anno, anziché l'avanzo considerevole previsto. Tuttavia, essendo l'economia del paese nuovamente in calo, il governo greco è convinto che l'attuale programma di rimborso del debito non stia funzionando e che, in assenza di correzioni significative, non funzionerà mai.   

L’argomentazione a sostegno della richiesta della Grecia di rivedere le condizioni del bailout è il resoconto, rafforzato dagli attuali travagli economici del paese, della sua condizione di vittima di un'austerità eccessiva. Questo punto di vista, però, non tiene conto di una realtà importante, e cioè che l'austerità ha funzionato in altri paesi europei colpiti dalla crisi. In effetti, il Portogallo, l'Irlanda, la Spagna e persino Cipro stanno mostrando chiari segnali di ripresa, con una disoccupazione finalmente in discesa (anche se lentamente e da livelli alti) e la possibilità di accedere nuovamente ai mercati dei capitali.

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