Greece flag ship trade Elias Bizannes/Flickr

为何希腊如此特殊?

发自布鲁塞尔——希腊新政府和其国际债权人——世界货币基金组织,欧洲央行以及欧盟委员会——之间看似永无止境的新贷款协议谈判已经进入了一个危险的阶段。在这个结骨眼上,可能由任何一方犯下的错误都将欧洲拖入一场新的危机。

国际货币基金组织似乎已经准备好退出谈判——不仅因为最近披露希腊将在今年出现小规模基本预算赤字(将利息支付款排除在外),而非原计划的大规模盈余。更因为随着希腊经济再次下滑,该国政府认定现有的偿付计划是无用的——当然在缺乏大规模经济结构调整的情况下,该计划永远都不会起作用。

而阻碍希腊新援助条款的最根本原因就是其自身认知——并由其当前的经济困局不断强化——认为该国是过度紧缩政策的牺牲品。但这忽视了一个关键的事实:紧缩政策对其他受危机冲击的欧洲国家是起作用的。事实上,爱尔兰,西班牙甚至塞浦路斯都呈现出明确的复苏迹象,失业率终于开始下降(虽然缓慢并从高位下行),从资本市场融资的渠道也得到了恢复。

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