Uma História com Moral Grega

NOVA IORQUE – Quando a crise do euro começou, há meia década, economistas Keynesianos previram que a austeridade que estava a ser imposta à Grécia e aos outros países em crise iria falhar. Iria impedir o crescimento e aumentar o desemprego – e até falhar na diminuição do rácio da dívida relativamente ao PIB. Outros – na Comissão Europeia, no Banco Central Europeu, e em algumas universidades – falaram de contracções expansionistas. Mas até o Fundo Monetário Internacional defendeu que as contracções, tal como os cortes na despesa pública, não passavam disso – de contracções.

Não precisávamos de mais um teste. A austeridade já tinha falhado várias vezes, desde o seu uso precoce pelo Presidente dos EUA, Herbert Hoover, que transformou o crash do mercado bolsista na Grande Depressão, até aos “programas” impostos em décadas recentes pelo FMI, na Ásia Oriental e na América Latina. E contudo, quando a Grécia se viu em apuros, foi experimentada outra vez.

Em grande parte, a Grécia conseguiu seguir os objectivos definidos pela “troika” (a Comissão Europeia, o BCE, e o FMI): converteu um défice orçamental primário num excedente primário. Mas a contracção na despesa pública foi previsivelmente devastadora: 25% de desemprego, uma queda de 22% no PIB desde 2009, e um aumento de 35% no rácio da dívida relativamente ao PIB. E agora, com a esmagadora vitória eleitoral do partido anti-austeridade Syriza, os eleitores Gregos declararam que estavam fartos.

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