La parabola greca

NEW YORK – Quando, circa cinque anni fa, ebbe inizio la crisi dell'euro, gli economisti keynesiani preannunciarono che l'austerity imposta alla Grecia e ad altri paesi in difficoltà era destinata al fallimento, poiché avrebbe soffocato la crescita, aumentato la disoccupazione e non sarebbe riuscita a diminuire il rapporto debito-Pil. Altri – fra cui esponenti della Commissione europea, della Banca centrale europea e di alcune università – parlarono di contrazioni espansive, ma persino il Fondo monetario internazionale dichiarò che le contrazioni, così come i tagli alla spesa pubblica, avevano, per l’appunto, una funzione meramente “contrattiva”.

Non c’era affatto bisogno di un altro test. L'austerity aveva già registrato numerosi fallimenti, dal suo primo utilizzo sotto la presidenza di Herbert Hoover, che trasformò il crollo del mercato azionario nella Grande Depressione, fino ai "programmi" del Fmi imposti all'Asia orientale e all'America latina negli ultimi decenni. Eppure, quando la Grecia si è trovata in difficoltà, si è tentata di nuovo questa strada.

La Grecia si è attenuta, in gran parte, ai dettami della “troika” (Commissione europea, Bce e Fmi), convertendo un deficit di bilancio primario in un avanzo primario. Tuttavia, com'era prevedibile, la contrazione della spesa pubblica ha avuto effetti devastanti – una disoccupazione al 25%, il Pil in calo del 22% dal 2009 e un aumento del rapporto debito-Pil pari al 35%. E ora, con la schiacciante vittoria elettorale del partito anti-austerity Syriza, gli elettori greci hanno detto chiaramente di averne avuto abbastanza.

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