Řecká bajka o morálce

NEW YORK – Když před pěti lety vypukla krize eura, keynesiánští ekonomové předpovídali, že úsporná opatření, která se tehdy zaváděla v Řecku a dalších zemích zasažených krizí, nepovedou k úspěchu. Že udusí růst a zvýší nezaměstnanost – a že nedokážou ani snížit poměr dluhu k HDP. Jiní lidé – v Evropské komisi, v Evropské centrální bance a na několika univerzitách – mluvili o expanzivních kontrakcích. Avšak dokonce i Mezinárodní měnový fond na to namítl, že kontrakce, jako jsou škrty ve vládních výdajích, působí právě tak, jak jejich název napovídá – kontrakčně.

Další test jsme už snad ani nepotřebovali. Úsporná opatření opakovaně troskotají – od jejich raného použití za vlády amerického prezidenta Herberta Hoovera, kdy utahování opasků proměnilo krach na akciovém trhu ve velkou hospodářskou krizi, až po „programy“ MMF vnucené v posledních desetiletích východní Asii a Latinské Americe. Když se však Řecko ocitlo v potížích, byl tento recept odzkoušen znovu.

Řecku se do značné míry podařilo splnit diktát předepsaný „trojkou“ (Evropskou komisí, ECB a MMF): primární rozpočtový deficit proměnilo v primární přebytek. Kontrakce vládních výdajů však byla podle předpokladů zničující: nezaměstnanost 25%, pokles HDP od roku 2009 o 22% a zvýšení poměru dluhu k HDP o 35%. A dnes, kdy strana Syriza zaměřená proti úsporným opatřením zaznamenala drtivé volební vítězství, dali řečtí voliči najevo, že už toho mají dost.

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