希腊道德神话

纽约—五年前,当欧元危机爆发时,凯恩斯主义经济学家预测强加给希腊和其他危机国的紧缩措施将以失败告终。紧缩将扼杀增长、增加失业——甚至无法降低债务-GDP比率。其他人——欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和一些大学中的人——大谈扩张性收缩(expansionary contractions)。但即使是国际货币基金组织(IMF)也指出,收缩——比如政府支出的缩减——只能是收缩性的。

我们不需要其他验证了。紧缩一再失败,从美国总统胡佛的早期尝试(将股市崩盘变成了大萧条),到近几十年来IMF给东亚和拉美制定的“计划”莫不如此。而当希腊陷入麻烦时,我们又一次祭出了紧缩。

希腊在遵循“三驾马车”(欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和IMF)所制定的政策方面相当成功:其初级预算已从赤字转为盈余。但政府支出的收缩不出意料地产生了灾难性后果:失业率高达25%,GDP从2009年以来减少22%,债务-GDP比率增加35%。而如今,随着反紧缩的左翼联盟(Syriza)在大选中赢得压倒性胜利,希腊选民终于表示他们受够了。

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