Greek man walking riot police Michael Debets/ZumaPress

La amenaza del alivio de la deuda griega

BERLÍN – Cuando la crisis económica de Grecia sigue haciendo estragos, voces prominentes, que van desde economistas ganadores del premio Nobel como Paul Krugman hasta funcionarios como el secretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, Jack Lew, están exigiendo términos de rescate más tolerantes y un alivio de la deuda. Hasta el Fondo Monetario Internacional -que, junto con otras entidades de crédito europeas, han proporcionado a Grecia financiamiento de emergencia- recientemente se sumó a los reclamos. Ahora bien, ¿esta estrategia podría ser realmente el santo remedio proverbial para la crisis de Grecia?

La respuesta corta es no. Si bien la deuda pública de Grecia es innegablemente alta, y abunda la evidencia de que una deuda elevada puede frenar el crecimiento económico, el país enfrenta frenos aún más fuertes al crecimiento, como debilidades estructurales y políticas arriesgadas, de los que habría que ocuparse antes.

En verdad, Grecia probablemente dependa de financiamiento concesional de fuentes oficiales en los próximos años -financiamiento que está condicionado a las reformas, no a los ratios de deuda-. El stock de deuda nominal de Grecia sólo importará una vez que el país vuelva a entrar a los mercados de deuda y se someta a los términos de endeudamiento del mercado, no concesionales. Mientras tanto, Grecia debe implementar las reformas estructurales necesarias para restablecer las perspectivas de crecimiento a largo plazo del país y, en consecuencia, fortalecer su capacidad para pagarles a sus acreedores sin una reducción de deuda nominal importante.

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