Greek man walking riot police Michael Debets/ZumaPress

Die Bedrohung durch einen griechischen Schuldenerlass

BERLIN – Während die griechische Wirtschaftskrise immer noch in vollem Gange ist, setzen sich prominente Stimmen, von Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträgern wie Paul Krugman bis hin zu Politikern wie US-Finanzminister Jack Lew, für sanftere Bedingungen bei Rettungsprogrammen und Schuldenerlassen ein. Diesem Aufruf hat sich sogar der Internationale Währungsfonds angeschlossen, der gemeinsam mit anderen europäischen Kreditgebern Griechenland mit Notfinanzierungen versorgt hat. Aber kann solch ein Ansatz wirklich eine Wunderwaffe gegen die griechische Krise sein?

Die kurze Antwort lautet nein. Natürlich sind Griechenlands Staatsschulden unbestreitbar hoch, und es gibt viele Anzeichen dafür, dass hohe Schulden das Wirtschaftswachstum schwächen können. Aber das Land leidet unter noch stärkeren Wachstumshindernissen, die als erstes gelöst werden müssen, darunter strukturelle Schwächen und politische Scharmützel.

<>Tatsächlich wird Griechenland mit aller Wahrscheinlichkeit auch in den Folgejahren auf Kredite zu Vorzugskonditionen von öffentlichen Quellen angewiesen sein – Finanzmittel, deren Auszahlung von Reformen abhängen und nicht vom Verschuldungsgrad. Der nominale Schuldenstand des Landes ist nur dann von Belang, wenn das Land wieder an die Anleihenmärkte geht und sich nicht nur konzessionären, sondern auch marktbestimmten Kreditbedingungen aussetzen muss. Bis dahin muss Griechenland die Strukturreformen zur Wiederherstellung der langfristigen Wachstumsaussichten umsetzen und damit seine Fähigkeit verbessern, ohne großen nominalen Schuldenerlass seine Gläubiger auszuzahlen.

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