Greek man walking riot police Michael Debets/ZumaPress

希腊债务纾困的威胁

柏林—希腊经济危机还在肆虐,从保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)等诺贝尔经济学奖获得者到美国财政部长杰克·卢等名声显赫人士纷纷呼吁采取更宽大的援助条件和债务纾困。甚至国际货币基金组织(IMF)——它与其他欧洲贷款人一起为希腊提供了紧急融资——最近也发出了这样的呼声。但这一方针真的能够成为众所周知的希腊危机特效药吗?

简单的回答是不能。希腊公共债务水平毫无疑问很高,并且很多证据表明高债务可能制约经济增长,但希腊面临着更加严重的增长拖累因素,包括结构性弱点和政治边缘政策,这些因素必须首先解决。

事实上,希腊有可能将在未来多年仰仗来自官方资源的优惠融资生存——这些融资的条件是改革而不是债务比率。希腊名义债务存量只有在它重返债务市场并面临市场而非优惠借贷条件时才有意义。与此同时,希腊必须实施结构改革才能重塑长期增长前景,从而强化其在没有获得大量名义债务减免的情况下偿付债权人的能力。

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