Greek Parliament Dimitrios Sotiriou/ZumaPress

¿Un nuevo trato para las deudas pendientes?

CAMBRIDGE – El reconocimiento por el Fondo Monetario Internacional de que la deuda de Grecia es insostenible podría resultar ser un punto de inflexión para el sistema financiero mundial. Es evidente que se deben tomar más en serio las políticas heterodoxas para abordar las grandes cargas de deuda existentes, incluso en algunos países avanzados.

Desde el comienzo de la crisis griega, ha habido básicamente tres escuelas de pensamiento. La primera es la concepción de la llamada troika (la Comisión Europea, el Banco Central Europeo y el FMI), según la cual la periferia de la zona del euro con problemas de deuda (Grecia, Irlanda, Portugal y España) requiere una fuerte disciplina normativa para prevenir que una crisis de liquidez a corto plazo se transforme en un problema de insolvencia a largo plazo.

La prescripción normativa ortodoxa era la de conceder préstamos de empalme tradicionales a esos países, con lo que dispondrían del tiempo para solucionar sus problemas presupuestarios y emprender reformas estructurales encaminadas a aumentar sus posibilidades de crecimiento a largo plazo. Ese planteamiento ha “funcionado” en España, Irlanda y Portugal, pero a costa de recesiones tremendas. Además, hay un gran riesgo de recaída en caso de que se produzca un importante bajón en la economía mundial. Sin embargo, la política de la troika no ha estabilizado –y menos aún reavivado– la economía de Grecia.

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