Greek Parliament Dimitrios Sotiriou/ZumaPress

Un New Deal pour les surendettements ?

CAMBRIDGE – La reconnaissance par le Fonds Monétaire International du fait que la dette de la Grèce est non viable pourrait se révéler être un tournant pour le système financier mondial. De toute évidence, les politiques hétérodoxes pour faire face à un poids de la dette élevé doivent être prises davantage au sérieux, même dans certains pays avancés.

Depuis le début de la crise grecque, il y a eu principalement trois écoles de pensée. Premièrement, il y a l'opinion de la troïka (la Commission européenne, la Banque centrale européenne et le FMI), selon laquelle la périphérie surendettée de la zone euro (Grèce, Irlande, Portugal et Espagne) a besoin d'une forte discipline politique pour éviter une crise de liquidités à court terme, qui risque de se transformer en un problème d'insolvabilité à long terme.

La prescription de la politique orthodoxe consistait à étendre les prêts relais classiques pour ces pays, en leur donnant ainsi le temps de corriger leurs problèmes budgétaires et d'entreprendre des réformes structurelles visant à renforcer leur potentiel de croissance à long terme. Cette approche a « fonctionné » en Espagne, en Irlande et au Portugal, mais au prix de récessions énormes. En outre, il existe un risque élevé de rechute dans le cas d'un ralentissement important de l'économie mondiale. La politique de la troïka n'a cependant pas réussi à se stabiliser et encore moins à faire revivre l'économie de la Grèce.

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