greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

Последний акт Европы?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Лидеры Евросоюза продолжают вести рискованную игру с греческим правительством. Греция уже согласилась с большей частью требований своих кредиторов. Однако Германия и другие кредиторы Греции продолжают требовать, чтобы страна подписалась под программой, которая уже доказала свой провальный характер – лишь немногие экономисты считают, что ее можно и нужно реализовать.

Резкий разворот бюджета Греции от большого первичного дефицита к профициту является практически беспрецедентным, однако новое требование достигнуть первичного профицита в 4,5% ВВП стало просто бессовестным. К сожалению, когда «тройка» – Европейская комиссия, Европейский центральный банк и Международный валютный фонд – впервые включила это безответственное требование в программу международного финансирования Греции, у властей страны не было другого выбора, кроме как согласиться.

Глупость настаивания на этой программе особенно очевидна сейчас, когда ВВП Греции упал на 25% с начала кризиса. «Тройка» плохо спрогнозировала макроэкономический эффект программы, которую сама же и навязала.  Согласно опубликованным ранее прогнозам, члены «тройки» полагали, что благодаря сокращению зарплат и реализации мер по сокращению госрасходов греческий экспорт вырастет, а экономика быстро вернется в состояние роста. Они также были уверены, что первая реструктуризация долга приведет к его стабилизации.

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