greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

O Último Acto da Europa?

NOVA IORQUE – Os líderes da União Europeia continuam a disputar um jogo de perigosa provocação com o governo Grego. A Grécia aproximou-se das exigências dos seus credores a muito mais de meio caminho. Porém, a Alemanha e os outros credores da Grécia continuam a exigir que o país adira a um programa que já provou ser um fracasso, e que poucos economistas alguma vez pensaram que pudesse ou devesse ser implementado.

A mudança na posição fiscal da Grécia, de um grande défice primário para um superavit, quase não teve precedente, mas a exigência de que o país atinja um excedente primário de 4,5% do PIB foi incompreensível. Infelizmente, no momento em que a “troika” – a Comissão Europeia, o Banco Central Europeu, e o Fundo Monetário Internacional – incluiu pela primeira vez esta exigência irresponsável no programa financeiro internacional para a Grécia, as autoridades do país não tiveram outra opção senão acatá-la.

A insensatez de continuar a prosseguir este programa acentuou-se particularmente agora, dado o declínio de 25% no PIB suportado pela Grécia desde o início da crise. A troika avaliou muito mal os efeitos macroeconómicos do programa que impôs. Conforme as previsões publicadas, acreditava que, cortando salários e aceitando outras medidas de austeridade, as exportações Gregas aumentariam e a economia retomaria rapidamente o crescimento. Também acreditou que a primeira reestruturação de dívida levaria à sustentabilidade da dívida.

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