greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

Dernier acte pour la zone euro ?

NEW YORK – Les dirigeants de l’Union européenne continuent à jouer avec le feu avec le gouvernement grec. La Grèce a accepté plus de la moitié des exigences de ses créanciers ; pourtant certains d'entre eux, notamment l'Allemagne, continuent d'exiger d'elle qu'elle adopte une politique qui a fait la preuve de son inefficacité et dont peu d'économistes pensaient qu'elle allait ou devait être appliquée.

Le basculement de la position budgétaire de la Grèce d'un grand déficit primaire à un excédent est pratiquement sans précédent, mais il était déraisonnable d'exiger d'elle un excédent primaire à hauteur de 4,5% du PIB. Malheureusement, au moment où la "troïka" (la Commission européenne, la Banque centrale européenne et le FMI) a inclus cette exigence abusive dans le projet d'accord financier international destiné à la Grèce, les autorités du pays n'avaient d'autre choix que de s'y soumettre.

Etant donné la baisse de 25% du PIB que la Grèce a subi depuis le début de la crise, il est absurde de poursuivre cette politique. La troïka a très mal évalué les conséquences macroéconomiques des mesures qu'elle imposait. Elle prévoyait qu'avec l'austérité, en particulier la diminution des salaires, les exportations grecques augmenteraient et que la croissance reprendrait rapidement. Elle croyait aussi que la première restructuration de la dette suffirait à la rendre soutenable.

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